I have a feeling it will be next April/May. They've moved away from the fall for their last few releases: GTA IV, Red Dead Redemption, LA Noire, and now Max Payne 3. I think they are big enough that they don't need to do a holiday release to get the huge sales so they won't try to push it out for then.
Also we just really don't know how close to finished the game is at this point. We were only shown a teaser trailer and really nothing more. I find it doubtful they'll be finished this fall but who knows they could just be keeping us in the dark so they can really hype us up for the couple months leading into release.